The Complexity class ended last night "officially," while everyone wants to keep on meeting and doing things. Course we are all staying for next semester too. Last night we had a paper due where we needed to link the concepts with our own personal lives and experiences . . . so of course Thursday I got another giant project that George has fought with the county for over 2 years. It's on Delany Creek again where we did Long Pond, the Mall and the track south of it; so it's funny how it's finally coming to me now . . .
I mean just the river model is enough complexity already. It is actually simulating a natural system . . . where every drop of rain (over 52 inches/year here in Tampa) runs across the ground into a pipe and then to the creek out to Tampa Bay, the Gulf, a lake or other impoundment. Each pipe, ditch, and bridge acts as an individual "Agent" measured and calculated for changing the complex flow of the water. The river model itself becomes a very complex system of Agents where each piece is simulated by the water flow equations one after the other in the linear flow from where the first rain drop hits the ground to where ever the drop finally stops moving.
It is almost like the river is a community of Agents where the water itself might be the information or resources transferred from agent to agent in the community. In the natural environment of the river the flow of water is governed by gravity. The water will always flow downhill. Surprising enough I've seen engineering designs where they intend the water to flow uphill. This seems to represent the extreme complexity of the system, where something so obvious is overlooked because of the shear multitude of other components that must be simultaneously addressed.
The 33 square mile model of Delany Creek is a simple text file read by a computer program that includes over 14,000 lines of data, which represents 1200 pipes or channels, 358 creek sections, 611 weirs, 1200 nodes and 468 ponds. Each of these elements includes a list of characteristics and measurements that change the flow of water, most commonly determined by a professional survey company. Surprising enough many engineers seem to think this can all be controlled just as easily as they control a pipe and pond on a small commercial site or subdivision. However, this is a dynamic flow model, which means it will simulate the water flow as well as the wave actions created when the different water flows combine and create backflows, surface waves and flooding.
Thus it is truly a dynamic living model of the systems of water flow controlled by a multitude of Agents - 3837 Agents in Delany Creek. Bringing this engineering system into a Complexity perspective is what I wrote about in this assignment, see attached:
http://groups.google.com/group/community_sustainability_complexity/
Communiplexity Position Statement
A personally, academically and / or professionally-informed perspective on communities as complex adaptive systems, integrating knowledge generated over the course of the semester with understanding developed through scholarship in one’s “discipline of origin” and lived experience.
The first reading we reviewed from the Plexus Institute[1] really set the stage for our exploration of this semester's Complexity Seminar. I had just completed the Capstone Class for my MBA which included a Market Analysis and Strategic Plan for a local company. However, this class began where "they didn't believe in the strategic plans they wrote because the future was not as predictable as it was depicted in the plans... Complexity science offered an opportunity to explore an alternative world view.[2] Thus, escaping the Newtonian conception of the world was the first task to undertake. After nearly 20 years of working as an engineer this is a difficult task, but I welcomed the challenge.Complexity Science is based on relationships and context which allows for the emergence of self-organization.[3] Different patterns and relationships emerge from complex systems much like we all have seen in the unpredictable growth of Ants and Broccoli in nature. In this class I recognized that the sustainable aspects of nature might be primarily a result of the Complex Adaptive System which we see in much of nature. This inspired me further to understand and explore how emergence can bring change and innovation into organized systems.
This perspective gave me a new insight into my professional work as well. River modeling is a very complex system in engineering where a great multitude of components interact and combine together to create the whole system. Recognizing how any aspect of this complex whole can be instrumental in creating consistency is fundamental for successful modeling. I routinely compare simulations where one entity is changed from maximum to minimum values to understand the effects on the entire system. Similarly, each Agent in any other CAS we find can be instrumental in creating success or failure. Distinguishing how each agent interacts and what they can bring or take away from the CAS can be critical. We do not always have the freedom to adjust how an Agent impacts from maximum and minimum values as I can in the engineering of river models. However, if we are mindful enough of events to understand and note the influences demonstrated we can encourage specific agents and see new emergence in ways we want.
During much of this semester we studied and reviewed how Complexity Science has developed and what the current research has shown. Developing Agent Based Models has also been conceptually covered. Again my engineering background has been very valuable to improve my understanding of how these models and theories apply to the community systems around us. Understanding the Agents influence on the emergence of new properties is what makes me a good river modeler since I know how changing one component can affect the entire system. After years of modeling I have developed a "feeling" for how things changed in any river. The engineering experience shows that changing a specific agent must change other system components, but this "feeling" from experience has proven to be a better asset in modeling.
For example, I have recently been hired to address a critical flooding issue on a piece of property near Brandon. The owner has the property under contract for sale, and during the "due diligence process" before the final sale, the county suddenly changed the flood data for the property putting it into the flood zone. Thus, the land was suddenly not saleable. This is actually a situation that is very common in
The parties involved hired attorneys and confronted the county administrators to bring this issue to the forefront. In this area of government regulation the data and compilation of the data is very critical. Therefore, the county dispatched a new survey crew to measure the mile of creek involved to get new data for the model and verify the change in the flood elevation. They then hired another engineering firm to compile the new data into the river model. When I received the completed work submitted to the property owner I began reproducing the model changes. Again the accuracy and integrity of the data and compilation of the data is critical. Each 
separate “Agent” in this system can be critical to success or failure. This figure shows a typical comparison of the new model section (no. 210291) where it is partially accurate with this surveyed creek cross-section data (x-sect1), while the hatched area shows how the right part of the creek was excluded from the model. This might seem like a minor error, but for a mile of creek this will be very significant. Once again I know from experience that this highly complex model will have a considerable impact with the change of this single "agent."
Additionally, the complexity of the River Model is one tiny aspect of the problem. The politics of the Engineering firm’s relationship with the County comes to bear as well. Evidently this particular engineering firm had become complacent where accuracy is no longer critical. As the previous figure shows there are differences between the proposed model and the actual county survey data. Making these corrections alone dropped the water surface elevation (WSEL) over 2 feet on the property as noted in this table below.
ir relationships with each other and my own personal technical skills all added to make this a more complex system trying to resolve this flooding issue. The Engineers are in the middle of the issue between the Owner and the County, where the model, survey data and resulting flood elevations can lead to the sale of the property.
to address this situation. My first response was to check the survey (as indicated at left) this consequence allow for the recovery of buildable land with the model. This led to planning a new site permits based on the new flood elevation. Now we can make it work, or at least I can give them the limits for them to make it work.
the new relationships of these agents to define this larger system. What other Agents and relationships are involved? All of these have a significant impact on the environment where construction on the land also creates adverse impact on the flora, fauna and water. This brings me back to the River Models and engineering. These models don't account for the flora and fauna in any too well; however the growth and diversity in the flora and fauna are signals to the quality of the water. Again this adds another new level of complexity to this system. Modeling the flood stage is necessary for construction which impacts the flora and fauna by the derogated water supplies. If my engineering couldn't help save the environment maybe exploring the emerging complexity applications with the relationships of permitting and zoning will.
[2] Ibid. p 2
[3] Ibid. p 3
